Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 1d

Are they "Meme Stones" or "Meme Rocks"?

Asking for a friend.

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 2d

GOLD AND SILVER ARE THE NEW MEME STOCKS

Most commonly mentioned, and most positively mentioned, tickers on r/WallStreetBets over the past 12 hours are $GLD and $SLV, per SwaggyStocks

Markets are most vulnerable when certainty and control fall away at once. What would that look like?

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 2d

#NoSkidMarks

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 3d

From Tricolor to Saks, Bonds Are Now Crashing at Breakneck Speed www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 3d

It's always cool to learn how others are using "The Confidence Map" framework.

When the person is Jawad Mian, and the application is the markets, the thoughtful and poetic conclusion is required reading.

stray-reflections.com/articles/moo...

How bull markets die

stray-reflections.com

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 4d

I wrote "The Confidence Map" to help others understand how our feelings of certainty and control drive how we feel, what we want, and what we do.

Think about where you were last Sunday and where you are now on the Quadrant below and how that shift in location changed everything

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 4d

Whether it's my book or someone else's, please tell a friend about it.

A great way you can help an author is to let others know how much their book meant to you.

Even better, send a copy.

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 6d

Yes, only this time it's the canary on the conveyor belt.

Insurers prepare for wave of First Brands claims

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 6d

Candidly, the crowd should be far more concerned about the overlapping web of capital-moving conveyor belts now being exposed by the First Brand and Tricolor bankruptcies than the one that has recently received all the attention in AI.

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 6d

The game of "Where's Waldo?" continues...

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 6d

Insurers are preparing for a wave of potential claims relating to First Brands’ bankruptcy, as one of Wall Street's biggest debacles in years ripples through the financial system

Latest on the contagion from the auto parts firm’s collapse, with the great @leeharris.ft.com here 👇🏻

on.ft.com/48iuBCO

[FREE TO READ] Allianz, Coface and AIG among groups to have written credit insurance policies linked to bankrupt car parts maker

on.ft.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 7d

Something something K-Shaped Economy

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 7d

PEPSI CEO, on @cnbc.com:

Lower-income consumers are "stretched, very stretched." Hispanics "are especially hurting. We see their mobility, their income, their behavior changing. .. They don't meet their friends as often. .. We're concerned about some parts of the population."

$PEP

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 7d

While this is far less exciting than tweets about the growing weave of intersecting capital conveyor belts in AI, as I look ahead, I expect this will matter far more:

www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-k-...

Why The "K-Shaped Economy" Really Matters

I am often asked why I am so concerned about America's K-Shaped Economy. So, let me explain.

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 7d

I see UK policymakers have moved from trickle down to bottoms up economics...

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 7d

As I watch the aftermath of the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies, I am reminded of the book "Where's Waldo?" as the crowd scrambles to figure out who the unlucky are who have exposure.

Why The "K-Shaped Economy" Really Matters

Reposted by Peter Atwater

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 8d

‘Widely shared hopelessness fuels highly impulsive and emotional "Me Here Now" behavior - what I call the 5F's: Fight, flight, freeze, follow and fuck-it. We aren't there yet, but there a plenty of signs that suggest the conditions are ripe for 5F behavior.’ www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-k-...

I am often asked why I am so concerned about America's K-Shaped Economy. So, let me explain.

Jefferies reveals $715mn fund exposure to First Brands invoices

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 8d

The game of "Where's Waldo?" continues...

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 8d

🚨 JEFFERIES REVEALS $715MN FUND EXPOSURE TO FIRST BRANDS INVOICES 🚨

Jefferies has said that one of its credit funds has ~$715mn of exposure linked to First Brands Group, making the US investment bank one of the largest-known creditors to the bankrupt auto parts firm.

www.ft.com/content/8d47...

US investment bank is one of the largest-known creditors to the bankrupt auto parts firm

www.ft.com

Jefferies reveals $715mn fund exposure to First Brands invoices

Reposted by Peter Atwater

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 8d

🚨 JEFFERIES REVEALS $715MN FUND EXPOSURE TO FIRST BRANDS INVOICES 🚨

Jefferies has said that one of its credit funds has ~$715mn of exposure linked to First Brands Group, making the US investment bank one of the largest-known creditors to the bankrupt auto parts firm.

www.ft.com/content/8d47...

US investment bank is one of the largest-known creditors to the bankrupt auto parts firm

www.ft.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 8d

I am often asked why I care so much about the "K-Shaped Economy."

As I share below, it has far less to do with economics than it does the staggering gap in confidence between those at the top and bottom and what that suggests.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-k-...

Why The "K-Shaped Economy" Really Matters

I am often asked why I am so concerned about America's K-Shaped Economy. So, let me explain.

UBS fund holds 30% exposure linked to First Brands

Reposted by Peter Atwater

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 8d

With Buy Now, Pay Later, “everything she ever coveted was suddenly up for grabs. In retrospect, she told me, “it was like throwing gasoline on a burning fire.”

@nytimes.com @peteratwater.bsky.social $AFRM
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/m...

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 8d

The game of "Where's Waldo?" begins...

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 8d

🔥FIRST BRANDS NIGHTMARE ON WALL STREET SPREADS TO PARADEPLATZ 🔥

A UBS fund has 30 per cent of its portfolio tied to the failed First Brands Group, leaving Switzerland’s largest bank grappling with a bankruptcy that has convulsed global finance.

Lots more scoopy detail here: on.ft.com/46VXxhD

[FREE TO READ] Switzerland’s largest bank has multiple investments tied to bankrupt auto parts maker

on.ft.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 8d

It will be very interesting to see how the crowd reacts to this article when it hits the print edition of Sunday's NYTimes.

nytimes.com/2025/10/07/m...

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 9d

"imagined" demand.

The future is inherently unknown. Therefore, we must imagine it.

Nicholas Brown @nicholasabrown.bsky.social · 9d

$DELL | Dell Hikes Estimates For Next Four Years On Strong AI Demand - BBG

Dell Hikes Estimates for Next Four Years on Strong AI Demand

Dell Technologies Inc. roughly doubled its growth estimates for sales and profit for the next two years, and said demand for artificial intelligence products will extend those higher projections at le...

www.bloomberg.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 9d

"Impossible not to own it."

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 9d

“It’s gold-plated Fomo. Gold has become so big . . . that you cannot ignore it. There becomes a level when it becomes impossible not to own it.”
www.ft.com/content/54dc...

‘Gold-plated Fomo’ powers bullion’s record-breaking rally

Price has rocketed 50% this year, its best performance since 1979, as institutional investors pile in

www.ft.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 9d

ICYMI - Two weeks ago, I had the wonderful opportunity to catch up again with the always thoughtful Jawad Mian.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

The Confidence Game: AI, Trump, and the S&P 500

Podcast Episode · Stray Reflections · 09/28/2025 · 45m

podcasts.apple.com