Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social

Andy Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ revkin.substack.com @revkin.bsky.social · 2d

Glad this climate and energy conversation is up and running.

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.

1 1 7

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

Additionally, we received 24 questions beforehand (many of which had to be cut due to time constraints in the episode). I have provided bullet point-style written responses with references/links that viewers seeking more detail may find helpful.

www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/24-questio...

24 Questions on Extreme Weather, Disasters, and Climate Change

As Seen on PBS Energy Switch

www.breakthroughjournal.org

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

S7 Ep4: Extreme Weather part 2 | Floods, fires and storms are flat or down, but risk and damages have increased. www.pbs.org/video/extrem...

Energy Switch | Extreme Weather part 2 | Season 7 | Episode 4

Floods, fires and storms are flat or down, but risk and damages have increased.

www.pbs.org

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

S7 Ep3: Extreme Weather part 1 | Our experts dig through IPCC data to reveal surprising trends in extreme weather. www.pbs.org/video/extrem...

Energy Switch | Extreme Weather part 1 | Season 7 | Episode 3

Our experts dig through IPCC data to reveal surprising trends in extreme weather.

www.pbs.org

1 1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

You can watch the full discussion here:

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

Additionally, a major part of the perception is that activists in the climate movement have found it very useful to connect extreme weather to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations as a tool of advocacy.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

What is put in front of our eyeballs is largely Earth's pre-existing extreme weather hazards interacting with vastly increased exposure over time and then disseminated to us much more efficiently than ever before through the internet and algorithms.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

I think there's a huge gap between what you’d read in the IPCC chapter on extreme weather (WG1 CH 11) and what you see in a lot of media.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

That also means that outcomes from extreme weather today are dictated much more by societal arrangements and background economic development than by the severity of the hazard itself.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

Meanwhile, climate-sensitive outcomes, such as per capita deaths from extreme weather or $ damage per $ exposed, have declined over time due to economic and technological development.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

However, global fire activity, global floods, global meteorological droughts, global hurricane activity, global mid-latitude cyclones, severe thunderstorms, and their subhazards aren’t changing at nearly the pace (or sometimes even in the direction) many people think.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

I highlight that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, are causing an increase in heatwaves and coastal flooding as well as a decrease in coldwaves.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · 2d

I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.

1 1 1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Sep 10

Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025].

It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025] | IBKR Campus US

It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prediction markets.

www.interactivebrokers.com

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 27

There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 27

I had a great time participating in the @srm360.bsky.social‬
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.

youtu.be/w38WX530ATA

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 21

Do we still expect an active hurricane season?
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 16

This is just the latest datapoint highlighting the potential of machine learning methods to continue to help us improve our weather forecasts and disaster preparedness.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 16

It is notable that Google DeepMind's ML Model foresaw Erin’s extreme rapid intensification as a real possibility as early as last Tuesday evening, while the traditionally most relied upon physical model, ECMWF-ENS, did not have Erin’s level of rapid intensification within its realm of possibility.

1 1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 16

But forecasting systems are constantly evolving and have continually improved over time, with Machine Learning and AI methods now leading this development.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 16

One of the main concerns about rapid intensification (and the possibility of more storms undergoing rapid intensification in a warming climate) is that if forecast systems are unable to predict it, rapid intensification would reduce forecast accuracy and disaster preparedness.

1 1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 16

To be classified as “rapid intensification,” a storm’s wind speeds must increase by 35 mph in 24 hours, so this was more than a ‘double’ rapid intensification.

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 16

Hurricane Erin exhibited extreme rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with wind speeds increasing by 75 mph, from 70 mph at 8:00 AM Friday to 145 mph (Category 4) at 8:00 AM Saturday.

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 15

Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

Hurricane Prediction Market Commentary 8/15/2025 | IBKR Campus US

The southern US, the Caribbean, and Bermuda are keeping their eyes on Hurricane Erin. As the E in Erin suggests, it is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is the first hurricane.

www.interactivebrokers.com

1 1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Aug 15

Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

Hurricane Prediction Market Commentary 8/15/2025 | IBKR Campus US

The southern US, the Caribbean, and Bermuda are keeping their eyes on Hurricane Erin. As the E in Erin suggests, it is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is the first hurricane.

www.interactivebrokers.com

1

PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social @patricktbrown31.bsky.social · Jun 13

Nice overview by
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...

Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Why wildfire fuels matter more in a warming climate

A warming climate has made it more challenging to deal with wildfires by extending the number of days they can occur and leading to faster-growing larger fires that can have major impacts on air quali...

nbcbayarea.com

3