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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas

@ncsi.bsky.social

93 followers 110 following 640 posts

Equity, Crypto, Preferreds and unconventional investments. Contributing on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/non-correlating-stock-ideas

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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · Sep 10

New value long idea: $FMC
seekingalpha.com/article/4821...

Is FMC Stock A Value Opportunity In The Carnage Of Chemical Stocks? (NYSE:FMC)

FMC stock may be undervalued compared to peers, with strong fundamentals and improving outlook. Read here for more investment analysis.

seekingalpha.com

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 4h

It's surprising how close we are, and I've mentioned this before, but P&F trend is actually great at signaling for the $VIX. If it breaks that Bear Trend line, then I'd expect a material decline in equities. 👀 26

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 4h

Outside of the pandemic, the spread between $WLKP's yield and the 10Y rate is high historically. On the flip side, the Ethylene Sales Agreement comes up for renewal 12/26, which means 12/25 $WLK has its first opportunity to cancel the contract.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 6h

That's ok too. As long as one knows this is a set it and forget type asset there to protect against something more than just CAGR of ROI etc..., then that removes the emotion as well. Another point is tax consequences of selling. If one has some massive gain, then it may feel impossible to sell.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 8h

Just a few items of interest to point to from the $USB report.
NIM was up, but margin down.
Non-Int bigger driver as income up and exp down. Comp declining.
Not much growth in loans or deposits.
Tang assets/Tang Equity leverage ratio declining.
NPL, NCO, Reserves stable.
Readthrough ECO sideways.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 9h

There are so many things I could say about this. So many different angles, but the most important one might just be that as stock pickers you only have about 10ish A to B level ideas a year. They all won't work at the same time either, but more than that, you're likely diluting or deluding yourself.

Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 9h

H/t @MebFaber

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 1d

There's always a possibility that I am selling my silver at this moves equivalent of where the pointer is, and not the absolute peak of the move. I don't care. I try to be an investor, and experience has taught me how rare it is to nail the exact top. I'd rather not expend the emotional energy.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 1d

Not a candle TA, but if $METC breaks this $48 level, it would be hard to come up with a view that doesn't suggest the Rare Earth craze has peaked. All of these stocks are down double digits today. Reminds me of the old days with glory stocks like Presstek.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 1d

Most people wouldn't even have a clue how to do the analysis of SPV's, but just coming out and saying it out loud that it's all about hiding leverage and assets to make companies appear more profitable, to boost equity prices, so that they can do more deals like these, = 3 card monte.

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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 1d

There's really no news here, but still interesting to see the NDX's Bullish Percent continue to drop. It's getting closer to the point where people will mention bears. But sure, keep telling me about how this isn't as bifurcated a market as this suggests. $BPNDX

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 1d

"Wily?" More like Wile E. Coyote.

a cartoon coyote is standing in the sky with a cloud in the background

ALT: a cartoon coyote is standing in the sky with a cloud in the background

media.tenor.com

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 2d

I see a lot of musings about the lack of signs regarding economic weakness. Q3 reports are good etc....
However, this break on the 30Y $TYX looking more legit by the day. With upward pressure on rates everywhere else, increased supply domestically, seems to me the market is telling you something.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 2d

10x Ev/Ebitda has been a recent low end of its range since these transformational acquisitions. I have an alert at $64. $OKE

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 2d

I've had a stash of Canadian mint silver coins that I am in process of selling. Similar to when I sold my used car after the pandemic, there comes a time when you have to look at the market and ask the fundamental question: if I don't sell now, then when am I ever?

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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 2d

This has me waiting for washout valuation levels on $OKE. As much as one can argue about their fixed pricing exposure, the reality is the stock will follow oil price declines regardless. $BRN 2% box size.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 4d

Someone needs to press Scott Bessent about this. George Soros literally made his career in finance. Now he works for an administration that vilifies Soros, and he says nothing. Does nothing. I can't conjure the words to describe what I think of Bessent now. Just horrible.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 6d

It's either that or the antichrist burns our ears out with Kars-for-Kids, you know, the one with the "K."

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 6d

Gee that whole Tariff Tantrum and China Trade War period went over so well in April, let's try running it out there again.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 6d

This is sort of like rubber necking on the highway, but $RHI from 1996 with monthly rsi(10). The GFC low was 23, so now at 19 well below the time when the financial world was ending.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 6d

You don't see this if you're looking at spread charts, but over the last month High Yield and Preferreds have been weak despite the 30Y actually being down. Perhaps we're seeing the first ripples of the implosions happening in the private markets spreading? $HYG $PGX $TYX (in blue)👀

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 7d

$LYB doesn't have as long of a trading history as some other names out there, but here's the obvious line to draw on a bar chart. I won't bother with showing the rsi(10), because it's just stupid low at this point.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 7d

$METC monthly rsi(10) almost all the way to that previous crazy spike high. Difference is back then met prices were flying high. Today's move all on speculation that maybe Trump will invest in $METC and maybe RRE pricing will actually rise in response to China. Crazy times.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 7d

Not just that, but by Canada.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 7d

Oh you're having to listen to him. How many times as he talked about bunting or playing small ball? There's probably a betting line on that now.

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 8d

$RHI update:
1. monthly rsi(10) at GFC level
2. sma of rsi also at GFC level
3. only time exceeded was crash of '87, went from $22 to .48c
4. why do I feel like #3 is a legit tail risk currently for the market? 2020?

Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 8d

AI is essentially hijacking the regulated electricity generation market, and perversely forcing the rest of us to pay for their businesses. I remember when people complained about $BTC for its power needs. Bitcoin is child's play compared to this.

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