Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Ron

@mrwx4caster.bsky.social

440 followers 170 following 3.6K posts

Atmospheric-Physicist/Professional Meteorologist in applied meteorology & forecasting in the public, private and non-profit sectors. Past President of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Professional member of the AMS and RMetS (UK), AGU

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 2h

This would explain why the latest run (12Z) GEPS ens. Mean for rainfall -is just focused on rainfall Vs. just thunderstorm activity. Main rainfall axis (yellow squiggly line) has shifted east from L. Huron -Sun. AM thru Mon. AM Will keep an eye on it. #onwx #onstorm rn 30-50+mm

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 9h

(an hour earlier) -7am EDT (11Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for S. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm Cool start to the day Mainly sunny overall just a few clouds in spots. Have a great day....Gotta run 🏎️👋

1 5

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 9h

(an hour earlier) -7am EDT (11Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for N. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm Showers and and embedded storms for S. sections of NWONT. Fog Alert issued by ECCC for this AM. ....Gotta run🏎️ Have a great day!!!

1 3

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 10h

Latest hourly run of the HRRR model -Radar 4cast- has showers. embedded storm moving into NWONT for the day as a fairly strong Low continues to take shape, deepen and get better organized. #onwx #onstorm

1 4

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 10h

Current Radar loop/trend for overnight till 7:07AM EDT, storms developing ahead of that vigorous...headed you know where...NWONT🙄 (ignore the "mega" Lightning flash rate to the north-ghosts in the machine) #onwx #onstorm

1 4

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 19h

...Some early estimates of rainfall potential (in mm) for the weekend storm #onwx #onstorm (all ensemble runs, WPC is the juiciest, and the least is the Canadian) #onwx #onstorm

1 5

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 19h

8pm EDT (00Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for S. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 19h

8pm EDT (00Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for N. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 23h

local SONT view -Sat/aft.-Sat/eve.

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 23h

As expected in a previous post, the EURO Lightning guidance did change & will probably change again, as a vigorous Low moves in 4 the weekend & develops further. "Big picture"-Thurs/aft.-Sun/eve.-then local SONT -Sat/aft.-Sun/eve. (attached to post) #onwx #onstorm Wind/heavy rain also an issue.

1 3

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

...Quick look at the regional radar, last 6 hours, till 8:04 AM EDT. Some very light showers did materialized in the overnight in SWONT, gone now. ...Gotta run🏎️. Have a good day. #onwx #onstorm

1 4

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

(an hour earlier) -7am EDT (11Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for S. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm cooler is filtering into SONT. Weak TROF moving thru, -once thru, clearing skies. Have a great day.

1 3

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

(an hour earlier) -7am EDT (11Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for N. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm Cooler air in place, variable cloudiness to a mix of sun and cloud, slight risk of a light shower in S. sections of NWONT

1 2

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

...Just cause I'm missing the EURO Lightning⚡️guidance -from 8PM Wed thru Mon. 2PM EDT ...of course...you have NWONT seeing something🙄...maybe SWONT? -Gotta keep watching this, cause that vigorous TROF on the weekend may turn out stronger/more active. Will C #onwx #onstorm

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

Looking at the current NAM12K Upper air 4cast -temps at 850mb (~5Kft.) Blue=below 0C/Black=0C)/warm colours above 0C. A glancing blow of colder air aloft -in-and-out. Mid-Level Ridge re-builds in for a short time, as another vigorous TROF enters for the weekend #onwx #onstorm

1 6

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

8pm EDT (00Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for S. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm Weak, dry cold front crossing in the overnight for SONT will introduce a cooler brand of air into the region for Wed. thru Thurs. But it remains fair and dry overall.

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

8pm EDT (00Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for N. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm Fair and cool, -temps will be hovering at, or near the 0C mark for most places in NONT, with partly cloud to clear skies.

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

-better late then never, -your monthly climate summary from ECCC/MSC for September 2025. Temps average above normal especially in NWONT. Rainfall overall-below to near normal in spots. Chart summary of a few Ontario locations & a Sig. Wx summary. #onwx #onstorm (Source ECCC/MSC)

2 5

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 1d

Latest NAM3K has the least chance of showers with it, so I'll go with it,-dry cold front, clouds increases in the overnight, just a slight risk of a light shower as it passes, winds shift to the N-NW, -much cooler air for the next 2 days...but it remains fair/dry. #onwx #onstorm

1 4

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 2d

(an hour earlier) -7am EDT (11Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for S. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm Fairly quiet pattern, not much happening. Mix of sun and cloud overall. Weak cold front to the west over L. Huron, mainly dry, very little holding it together.

1 6

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 2d

(an hour earlier) -7am EDT (11Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for N. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm Fairly quiet, not much happening, cooler temps have moved into NWONT and the far north. Mix of sun and cloud to Mainly sunny overall.

1 2

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 2d

Quiet weather for S. Ontario today, some passing cloud overall, comfortable temps, nice day on-tap. #onwx #onstorm

1 7

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 2d

8pm EDT (00Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for S. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm cloudy with a few breaks, local models has some patchy fog developing off L. Ontario. Tues continues with a mix of sun and cloud.

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 2d

8pm EDT (00Z) Synoptic "Snapshot" of the weather for N. Ontario. #onwx #onstorm Variable cloudiness, for most places in the north, Turning colder in NWONT and it remains windy this evening shifting Northward into the far north. ECCC has a SWS 4 strong wind gusts, as of this post.

Ron @mrwx4caster.bsky.social · 2d

Cloud and radar 4cast from now till Wed. Midnight. Next cold front will cross S. Ontario (~early Wed.) will have very limited moisture with it, maybe a few isolated showers. So treat it as a dry cold front, with a wind shift to the NW and breezy, cooler air #onwx #onstorm

1 5