Luke Kawa
@ljkawa.bsky.social
5.1K followers 210 following 2.5K posts
Markets, Twain, Leafs, Survivor
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ljkawa.bsky.social
the intersection happening on two completely different, non-scaled axes?
ljkawa.bsky.social
i was saying boourns
ljkawa.bsky.social
a) i would not be equating Fed QE and deficit spending as having similar economic outcomes
b) am i supposed to believe there is something magical about the lines intersecting?
ljkawa.bsky.social
i’m extremely happy with this one, so, fits the bill
ljkawa.bsky.social
you reap what you soy
ljkawa.bsky.social
$SMH going out at basically the lows while everything else recovers in last 15... 👀
ljkawa.bsky.social
“Card spending & similar data we’ve seen from the banks & other providers so far points to a further acceleration in consumer spending in y/y Q3 with JPM at +9% (7% in Q2), WFC 6.3% (5.2%), C +4% (4%)...This is not the stuff of a weak economy even if it may be an odd one” - @pd-williams.bsky.social
ljkawa.bsky.social
Twain is the currency strategist of the family office. Has made one successful on-air call (about the euro)
ljkawa.bsky.social
i think that is part of the slow-moving story but not necessarily a part of the fast-moving story. From five or so weeks ago: sherwood.news/markets/gold...
ljkawa.bsky.social
Retail commodity ETF net imbalance in the 96th percentile through 11 am today, per JPM
ljkawa.bsky.social
GOLD AND SILVER ARE THE NEW MEME STOCKS

Most commonly mentioned, and most positively mentioned, tickers on r/WallStreetBets over the past 12 hours are $GLD and $SLV, per SwaggyStocks
ljkawa.bsky.social
“Short stories and children’s books have done especially well on Spotify, Smith said...”
ljkawa.bsky.social
something something law of diminishing returns
ljkawa.bsky.social
Big contrast between today’s action and previous AI announcements that had largely “rising tide lifts all boats” effect, like last week’s OpenAI-AMD pact or the follow-through from Microsoft + Meta’s earnings/capex outlooks in their most recent quarter
ljkawa.bsky.social
there’s a big conference
ljkawa.bsky.social
...what are the odds that the Oracle purchase of AMD chips is fulfilling the OpenAI order, so to speak?

(given that Oracle’s backlog in cloud computing capacity is also a function of OpenAI)
ljkawa.bsky.social
The skinny:

-retail buying of commodity ETFs in 98th percentile Monday, per JPM
-GLD & SLV call volumes at record/multi-year highs
-GLD RSI >70 for 29 of past 30 sessions, a record

sherwood.news/markets/gold...
Gold and silver are the new meme stocks
Momentum. Flows. Options Activity. Intense retail enthusiasm. It’s all there....
sherwood.news
ljkawa.bsky.social
GOLD AND SILVER ARE THE NEW MEME STOCKS

Most commonly mentioned, and most positively mentioned, tickers on r/WallStreetBets over the past 12 hours are $GLD and $SLV, per SwaggyStocks
Reposted by Luke Kawa
econreporter.bsky.social
Edward Nelson, economists at the Fed board, has a working paper on the history of central bank's inflation "look through", interesting stuff...

like did you know, it's seemingly Bank of Canada first coined the phase "look through

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...
ljkawa.bsky.social
The last time $BIZD (BDC ETF) was trading at these levels, high yield spreads were 4.5%pts