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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 5h

September production data, to be released next Monday, will give the next indication.

Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 5h

A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

While China is at just over 20% clean energy in the total energy mix, the country is not alone in having a long way to go - the country just overtook the U.S. and the world average in clean energy share in 2024. So we need about 5x as much clean energy globally as we have now.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

For example, here's the primary energy mix - note not just electricity but all energy - for Brazil, Finland and France, a few of the countries that have reached a high share and achieved rapid increases of clean energy in their energy mixes.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

For those of us who try to communicate the clean energy trends and highlight the evidence of what clean energy is capable of, tweets like this are a reminder to sharpen our messages and highlight success stories outside of China.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

But such a turnaround - coming close to peaking or plateauing emissions from fossil fuel use - obviously does not mean that China would have achieved a significant reduction in emissions or a clean energy system. Peaking is just the very first step in getting there.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

What the budding turnaround looks like is that China has since early 2024 covered its energy demand growth almost fully from clean energy - for the first time without a sharp slowdown in demand growth. A great achievement given rapid growth and vast scale of China's energy use.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

In a word, China's budding emission turnaround matters because the country is the world's largest emitter and until recently largest source of emission growth. Duh?

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

The reason why China's clean energy boom matters so much is the exact opposite -- because China's fossil fuel use grew so fast, and the energy system is so fossil-fuel dominated.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

In contrast, China does NOT lead the world in how fast it's adding clean energy in relation to the size of its energy market, and most definitely does not lead the world in how clean its energy or power mix is.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

3) if you're interested in industrial policy and economic and technological competition, the size of the home market matters. If e.g. the EU lets the home market for wind, EVs and other key technologies to continue to wither, our cleantech industry is done for.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

2) people used to think, and astonishingly sometimes still do, that clean energy can't deliver at the massive scale needed to power advanced economies. The fact that China adds enough clean power to run most other countries, in a single year, blows this out of the water.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

China deploys by far the most solar, wind, EVs, nuclear, battery storage, heat pumps and many other clean tech - in absolute terms. This is relevant because:
1) globally, we just need clean energy to grow (much) faster than total energy demand, so it's a game of gigawatts.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8h

Since tweets like this continue to travel and I get similar responses every time I post something positive about China, it's maybe good to point out where China's progress on clean energy is and isn't world-leading and/or game-changing. 🧵

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9h

China's coal imports fell 3% in September, and are down 11% year-to-date. Fossil gas imports fell 8% in September, -6% year-to-date. Net oil imports are up 2% year-to-date, 3% in September, and oil product exports are rising fast in October, indicating easing demand.

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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Auke Hoekstra @aukehoekstra.bsky.social · 5d

If you want an explanation of why China is kicking the EU car industry to the curb, look no further than the criminally knuckle dragging EU car makers demanding new loopholes so they don't have to meet any meaningful low emission targets for cars in the EU.
www.ft.com/cIfontent/5a...

Carmakers demand EU eases ‘rigid’ 2035 petrol car ban

Environmental groups say carmakers’ demands risk halving electric vehicle sales in Europe

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 8d

💡 With the US withdrawing, will BRICS fill the void in climate leadership?

Addressing the question at FIIA Climate Day event "Expanding BRICS in global climate governance" were Mihaela Papa, MIT Center for International Studies & @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, @creacleanair.bsky.social.

Mihaela Papa giving a speech on stage with FIIA roll ups in the background.

Lauri Myllyvirta talking to Karoliina Pietarila on stage, both seated.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

I'm one of the authors of this work. Great progress with the power sector but lots of challenges with industry and transportation.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

Ember has a new great tracker for these exports that provides a lot of detail:
bsky.app/profile/nico...

Nicolas Fulghum @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social · 9d

NEW DATA | China's exports of clean technologies exceeded 20 billion USD for the first time in August📈

We just published a new @ember-energy.org data tool to track exports of EVs, batteries, gridtech etc. on top of our existing tracking of solar exports.

🧵

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

EV exports are mostly passenger vehicles, with some pick-up in electric trucks and buses but far behind China's own domestic progress with rolling out electric heavy vehicles.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

Asia and Middle East stand out for solar, along with the EU. Big auto producer countries import the most batteries, and EU imports the most EVs, but the most striking thing is how broad-based the exports are.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

China's clean energy technology exports continued strong growth in August, increasing 33% in dollar value year-on-year, with EVs +58%, solar +18%, wind +15% and batteries +23%. Exports grew to all regions except North America, evidencing strong demand.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 13d

There are a lot of gas-fired power projects in the world that should have been solar+storage projects. This shortage should and could prompt a rethink.
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch

Orders for turbines to power natural gas plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand.

www.bloomberg.com

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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 15d

Thank you to everyone who joined our webinar on China’s new climate pledge🎙️

Thanks also to our panelists: Li Shuo @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @rynacui.bsky.social @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org

If you missed the webinar, you can watch it here ⬇️
buff.ly/zUSLhUp

Webinar: Experts discuss what China's new climate pledge means for the world - Carbon Brief

Carbon Brief hosts webinar with China climate policy experts to discuss assessments of what the NDC means for China’s emissions pathway.

buff.ly

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15d

Source for the capacity data:
www.nea.gov.cn/20250926/2e8...

国家能源局发布2025年1-8月份全国电力工业统计数据，风光装机约17亿千瓦---国家能源局

国家能源网

www.nea.gov.cn

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