Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6h

After you factor everything in, Republicans still gain a double-digit # of seats. Democrats aren't gaining that many more in IL/CA/NY — not enough to counter this.

2 8

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6h

You net 4 more in CA, a couple more in New York, and 3 more in Illinois if you really force a spaghetti-fication of the maps (doubtful Dems can pull *that* off, as it's actually much harder than it looks).

You lose all that and more in the deep South. Don't play with fire hoping it's overturned

4 31

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6h

Don't galaxy-brain this.

Contrary to discourse on certain parts of this site, the VRA being overturned would be horrific for Democrats and democracy as a whole.

It would not be as bad as creating 30 new safe GOP seats — but it would not *help* Democrats. They still net seats because of it.

7 9 77

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 2d

So beat her. Who cares?

2 36

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 2d

I don't get this type of thinking unless you believe (like a lot of Dem politicians do) that someone is entitled to the seat.

If Platner's whole thing is "anti-establishment" then...let him go and beat the establishment. It lets him establish some separation too. bsky.app/profile/chan...

Chanda Prescod-Weinstein 🌌 @chanda.blacksky.app · 4d

Janet Mills — who is 77 — should stay the absolute fuck away from the Senate race and this situation is honestly

FRUSTRATING. AS. FUCK.

GRAHAM PLATNER FOR SENATE!

7 5 74

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 2d

You can't only like primaries when it's a left-wing insurgent challenging an existing incumbent, but then dislike them when an established politician gets in the race that was previously dominated by left-wing candidates. Just relax and go watch the NFL or bake bread or something this Sunday.

6 13 150

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 2d

Graham Platner is a very high-ceiling candidate in Maine with a lot of potential. He's also extremely untested and while he looks promising for Democrats, it's pretty important to have a primary here to see if there are any red flags that bubble up.

Just let it go and log off.

12 27 320

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 5d

Lot of variance on our other questions in the same survey and each respondent was matched back to the voter file. :)

1 4

Reposted by Lakshya Jain

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 5d

This is extremely uncontroversial and it’s time to consider guardrails and regulations on AI that can protect people without hamstringing an economic sector. It’s possible!

7 22 92

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 5d

This is extremely uncontroversial and it’s time to consider guardrails and regulations on AI that can protect people without hamstringing an economic sector. It’s possible!

7 22 92

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 5d

Imagine if ChatGPT tells your teenager to commit suicide. Should you be able to sue OpenAI?

I think the answer is obviously yes. And this is something that an healthy supermajority of Americans are very much in agreement on, as our polling finds.
www.theargumentmag.com/p/we-need-to...

We need to be able to sue AI companies

When a chatbot breaks bad, you should be able to go to court

www.theargumentmag.com

4 24 110

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6d

and yes, despite that, you should *also* be completely fine with people like Jared Golden yelling about how the shutdown is a bad idea. this is because it is very obvious that Golden has no choice but to say this, especially in a Trump +9 seat.

1 2 26

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6d

my thoughts on the shutdown: you guys would be a lot happier if you learned to watch the NBA.

Dems aren't losing this battle at the moment, and even if they do, none of this is likely to matter one year from now. think long-term for a second. www.theargumentmag.com/p/it-will-sh...

3 3 47

Reposted by Lakshya Jain

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6d

I think the Democrats have actually done fine on the shutdown despite all the journalistic hand-wringing.

More to the point: a lot of people would be happier if they stopped looking for drama in politics and started watching the NBA.

2 4 47

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6d

I think the Democrats have actually done fine on the shutdown despite all the journalistic hand-wringing.

More to the point: a lot of people would be happier if they stopped looking for drama in politics and started watching the NBA.

2 4 47

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6d

I’m usually of the opinion that fights are overrated.

But I also think Democrats aren’t losing the shutdown, despite picking a fight, and that it won’t matter at all for 2026 anyway. The numbers suggest they’re doing OK and journalists are just bored.

www.theargumentmag.com/p/it-will-sh...

It will shock you how much this shutdown never happened

Voters have short memories

www.theargumentmag.com

6 4 63

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 6d

Thanks, makes sense.

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 9d

The party follows the people; it's not the other way around. There's going to be another vehicle that picks up the votes of the folks that are voting conservative right now, and it's probably not going to be Labour!

2 28

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 9d

A big reason you should want a *modestly* strong, establishment-friendly opposition party is that people don't stop becoming conservative just because their party stops existing.

What comes after the Conservatives in the UK is going to make the Tories look like Mahatma Gandhi and Mother Teresa.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 9d

It's fascinating how there are still replies on this, and indeed on every post about the decline of the Tories, with people on the left and centre-left people going 'good'. Honestly, I don't know how big of a warning sign you need that the death of the Tory party is bad for your politics!

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 9d

Removing her will be an act of mercy at this point. It's getting unbearable to watch her flail around.

7 5 100

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 11d

I think Kiwi was right and I have seen Dems gain a larger amount with young voters this time around!

1 13

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 11d

I intend on continuing to post here because I find some value in some of the people that interact with *me* specifically, but that's basically it.

And yeah, X obviously has a lot of problems. Who said it didn't? This isn't an election. It's not a zero-sum game. You can use and dislike both.

6 39

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 11d

She's mostly right and I think, after posting on here a *lot* more over the last month, that this website is mostly a self-selected echo chamber with a critical mass of wannabe bullies that thrive on being miserable. Have fun with your Poster's Strike lol

Jay 🦋 @jay.bsky.team · 11d

Harassing the mods into banning someone has never worked. And harassing people in general has never changed their mind.

9 47

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 12d

If you found it interesting to read what we put out this week with our polling at The Argument on ChatGPT, AI, and self-driving cars, I hope you'll consider subscribing — whether free or paid.

We've got a lot of really cool stuff planned and would love to share it.

www.theargumentmag.com/subscribe

Subscribe to The Argument

Join Us. We're Libbing Out. Click to read The Argument, a Substack publication.

www.theargumentmag.com

2 10

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 12d

Newsom does better with seniors and college-educated voters, while AOC does better with young people. As expected, I guess.

full crosstabs here for paid subscribers. www.theargumentmag.com/p/chatgpt-an...

ChatGPT and the end of learning

My students kept using ChatGPT. I couldn't make them stop.

www.theargumentmag.com

4 1 34

Lakshya Jain @lakshya.splitticket.org · 12d

Something that was a bit surprising to me this time around:

I tested the favorables of Vance, Trump, Gavin Newsom and AOC in our latest survey.

Newsom: 36/40 (-4)
AOC: 36/41 (-5)
Vance: 39/51 (-12)
Trump: 42/57 (-15)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

10 10 80