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Jordan Nafa

@jordannafa.bsky.social

1.3K followers 310 following 2.2K posts

Bayesian Statistician and Data Scientist in the Gaming/Entertainment Industry | Bayesian Statistics, Causal Inference, R, Python, Stan, Decision Theory, Guitar | Former Political Scientist

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · Aug 20

Are you interested in Bayesian Optimization? Do you think multi-arm bandits are cool? Do you like donating to good causes? We'll, I'm super excited to say I'll be hosting a charity workshop on Bayesian Optimization with Multi-Arm Bandits on October 23rd.

sites.google.com/view/dariia-...

Dariia Mykhailyshyna - Workshops for Ukraine

Feedback on the past workshops (if you want to learn how to make wordclouds, check out Text Data Analysis workshop below)

sites.google.com

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2h

Yeah, my interest in "AI" stuff just isn't terribly high so it doesn't really do it for me the same way 🤷‍♂️

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2h

I shitposted my way to my first data science job and hired some amazing co-workers through stats twitter. Those were good times. I feel like the community was much larger and centrally located back then. I kind of miss the monthly discourse around why odds ratios are terrible.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2h

Moral of the story is always test drive the car you're actually going to buy, not just a car that is similar to it (thankfully the dealership I got it from has a satisfaction guarantee that allows returns within 72 hours of purchase)

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2h

You also sacrifice seat memory, electronic verticle/horizonal adjustment, and climate control in the seats with the racing seats and I like my cooled seats too much for that to be a worthwhile trade-off. But mostly I'd like to stay married.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

My wife doesn't fit in them and therefore hates them and after driving it this morning I noticed that 1) they're not terribly comfortable for more than like 60 seconds and 2) they create a horrendous blind spot.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

2025 Mustang Dark Horse

bsky.app/profile/jord...

This particular one is going back tomorrow to get swapped for one that doesn't have the racing seats, so not sure what color I'll end up with but same car.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

So, new car day

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

Oh yeah, that's totally possible. But it won't occur nationwide like it did in 2008 when the whole system just completely shit itself. I could see an economic downturn severely screwing people in areas that are already stretched too thin in terms of mortgage to income ratio.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

"Sir, we cannot conclude that your fuel economy is significantly different from 0"

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

I don't think we'll get another 2008-style crash. Yeah, prices are fucked and will continue to get worse in a lot of areas but lenders aren't just wantonly handing out mortgages like candy to anyone with a pulse anymore.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

That moment when you see someone whose commuter vehicle is an F-150 with a 6 inch lift kit that averages somewhere between -6 and 8 MPG highway.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

Longer mortgage terms as a solution to a lack of supply is so stupid. It's treating the symptoms because addressing the root cause of the problem is too much work 😮‍💨

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

Demand for sedans basically fell off a cliff in the U.S. a few years ago and it's really not clear why.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

There's this very odd trend in American culture, that has gotten dramatically worse over the last few years, where for some obscure reason people think they need a massive 4 ton SUV to drive 35 miles to and from work and like, why?

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 8h

If you are driving a truck as a commuter vehicle rather than as a work vehicle/hauling things, you should buy the much cheaper sedan! People who drive large trucks/SUVs for no apparent reason kind of deserve to get fucked on interest 🤷‍♂️

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

It's absolutely terrifying that these terms are apparently becoming common, and if you thought 84 was bad there are apparently also 96 months (Ford's recent earnings report noted that they've seen an uptick in both 84 and 96 month financing terms) 😬

Eventually the camels back is going to break...

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3h

I was offered one last night and laughed at them. Was the first time I'd ever heard of it and like, just no this isn't a thing that should even exist.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 4h

I was aiming for ~360K and we ended up at ~380K in North Fort Worth, TX which isn't terrible considering how centrally located we ended up and that the other DFW suburbs start at like 600K-800K but man, rationalizing that amount to myself was a journey.

Post-covid housing prices are just wild.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 4h

We could always just take the median of production instead 🤷‍♂️

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 4h

The fun part is that traffic in DFW is so fucked that regardless of where you live in the metroplex, you're always at least 45 minutes from Dallas.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 4h

Oof, and median home price out where you are is like 200K more than it is here. Yeah, that's rough.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 5h

I came out slightly under 200% on the house we just bought with only 10% down after all was said and done. I just keep telling myself that it's only $400 more a month than I was paying in rent on the townhome for three times the space and that helps me sleep at night.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

With the caveat that depending on location, the housing one may quite literally be impossible to follow

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

Yeah, don't spend more than 10% of your gross monthly income on a car payment or more than 200% of your gross annual income on a house are both probably pretty solid financial advice.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

Lol, my new car payment is a little over 4 times that so I'm not sure absolute numbers are useful there. I'd say if your car payment at 60 months is more than 10% of your gross income, you've bought too much car for where you're at in life.

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

If this sounds unaffordable, my brother in christ have you consider buying a cheaper used car rather than a brand new one or if you have a working car, waiting for a more favorable promotional interest rate?

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

The base price of a 2026 Toyota Corolla is $22,725. The base price of a 2026 Honda Civic is $24,595. At 60 months assuming ~5% interest and 0 down, these come out to around $540/month. If you have a trade-in worth 20% or 20% to put down (around 5K), that drops to around $440/month.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 9h

My perhaps very tone deaf and controversial take is that the only appropriate response to an 84 month auto loan is "lol, absolutely not." If you need an 84 month loan on a car, you cannot afford the car.

Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 14h

“Once rare, 7-year car loans are fast becoming the norm. They’re often the only way buyers can afford new rides, with average sale prices surging 28% in 5 years to approach $50k.”

Designed-in car dependency, surging car prices, longer loan periods with more interest.

Sound like “freedom” to you?

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