Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 45m

The October meeting could well be one of the rare occasions when the market beats the superforecasters

But perhaps not. The market seems overconfident, especially since numerous FOMC voters have been sounding notes of caution & there is a CPI reading to come

Free-to-read: on.ft.com/43dXmgu

A test for hawkish ‘superforecasters’ on the Fed

[FREE TO READ] The contrarian position deserves attention given their record in beating the market

on.ft.com

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 45m

What is interesting is that there has not been such a wide gap this close to a Fed rate meeting between the market and superforecasters

Indeed, besides the pricing ructions around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, they have not deviated to such a large degree -- see 2023 comparison 👇

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 45m

The market should take note since superforecasters have consistently had the edge in anticipating what the FOMC will do

There is typically unanimity about the Fed decision -- the outperformance is instead based on superforecaster's higher confidence in the eventual outcome -- see 2025 fig👇

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 45m

📢NEW from me in the @financialtimes.com on superforecasters and their hawkish position on the Fed 📢

While the market is pricing in near certain October rate cut (>99%), “superforecasters” — lay people who excel in anticipating the future — are expecting a hold

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 9d

Really interesting post by Tej Parikh on the declining effectiveness of monetary policy (e.g. due to more and longer fixed loan terms)

Not clear though what central banks can do about it. Financial conditions targeting? What alternative to blunt interest rate tool?

on.ft.com/4h34Hp6

Confronting the limits of monetary policy

[FREE TO READ] The ability of interest rates to guide prices and the economy is diminishing

on.ft.com

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 9d

Yes and it is not only due to tariffs and goods prices, services are a problem too on.ft.com/436rURb

US inflation being driven higher by core goods and services

[FREE TO READ] A deep dive into inflation data reveals upward pressure via supply and demand forces

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Joel Suss

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 10d

An astronaut, looking at the Earth: “Wait, it’s all social care obligations?”
Behind them, another astronaut, drawing a gun to shoot them in the back: “Always has been.”

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 10d

Great detailed reporting here on how Netanyahu finally succumbed to pressure from a US president

eg. Trump to Netanyahu (when he said Hamas delaying): “Why are you so fucking negative?”

www.ft.com/content/6a62...

How Trump cornered Netanyahu into signing up for peace

Israel’s prime minister has encountered the first US president he cannot easily outmanoeuvre

www.ft.com

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 10d

In short: US inflation is far from defeated. It is not just goods prices which are rising because of tariffs, but the Fed also has a services issue to worry about.

free-to-read link: on.ft.com/3IW1fzO

US inflation being driven higher by core goods and services

[FREE TO READ] A deep dive into inflation data reveals upward pressure via supply and demand forces

on.ft.com

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 10d

Then there is energy and food categories: both are rising and there are plausible narratives for continued increases, like electricity demand from data centre build-outs and labour shortages pushing up domestic food prices

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 10d

Looking more carefully at the non-housing core services bucket (which is more than half the total inflation basket): in the words of the Dallas Fed: “further slowing . . . is not obvious”

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 10d

Also worrying for the Fed is that, while core goods being driven higher by supply effects, it is a demand-driven story on the core services side, perhaps due to loose financial conditions and AI investment boom

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 10d

📢New piece from me on US inflation today in the @financialtimes.com📢

It's not just (still modest) tariff-related effects boosting core goods and headline above target, core services excluding housing remain elevated

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Reposted by Joel Suss

Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 12d

Please join me in congratulating Woman on her appointment

Sky News @news.sky.com · 13d

Woman named as new Archbishop of Canterbury in historic first

Bishop of London Dame Sarah Mullally, a former nurse, has been named as the next Archbishop of Canterbury - the first time a woman has been appointed to the role in the Church of England's history.

news.sky.com

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 12d

Nice! Ordered. Lovely touch that it is expected on first anniversary of 'liberation day'

Reposted by Joel Suss

Soumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 13d

Eeee the cover for the UK edition of How to Win a Trade War is out!

Pre-order your copy here...
www.amazon.co.uk/How-Win-Trad...

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 13d

Social media use appears to have peaked everywhere but North America

on.ft.com/4gP83eW Have we passed peak social media?

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Reposted by Joel Suss

Melissa Ryan @melissaryan.bsky.social · 13d

I always pay attention to what stories People Magazine and other consumer media outlets cover. That's how you can tell that something has broken through the usual political and news bubbles. This horrific Chicago story has broken through. people.com/ice-agents-o...

ICE Agents Rappel from Helicopter in Overnight Chicago Raid, Dragging Kids from Beds to U-Hauls

Overnight on Tuesday, Sept. 30, federal agents from different agencies raided an apartment building on the South Side of Chicago, pulling men, women and children — some of them allegedly naked — from ...

people.com

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Reposted by Joel Suss

FT Weekend @ftweekend.com · 13d

Why yesterday’s terrorist attack felt inevitable on.ft.com/3KRfer6

Why yesterday’s terrorist attack felt inevitable

From foiled terror plots to antisemitic hate crime, Jews are awake to the threats we face

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Joel Suss

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 13d

Opinion: It would be a hugely welcome development to discover that we have not merely reached social media saturation point, but that the experience has been degraded to such an extent that it has shocked people out of their stupor. on.ft.com/476Dcr8

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Reposted by Joel Suss

LSE Inequalities @lseinequalities.bsky.social · 16d

In our latest blog, Javier Terrero Dávila (@oecdsocial.bsky.social) asks how much income mobility do different countries exhibit?

And how does it vary across different groups relating to age, gender, education and where people live?

#LSEInequalitiesBlog

buff.ly/6Jo3KX7

Who climbs the income ladder? New evidence from tax records

Using surveys to track short-term social mobility – how much people move up or down the income ladder – has limitations. How can using administrative data help?

blogs.lse.ac.uk

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 16d

US electricity prices have risen significantly due to data centre needs

“electricity now costs as much as 267% more for a single month than it did five years ago in areas located near significant data center activity.”

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

AI Data Centers Are Sending Power Bills Soaring

Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. That’s being passed on to customers.

www.bloomberg.com

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 16d

Great reporting here on the political pressure affecting prosecutions of white-collar crime in the US

Featuring also great use of LLMs for structuring data 👇👇

on.ft.com/3VFYuW3

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 22d

😂

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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 22d

The Fed's decision to cut rates last week have been criticised with inflation above target

A dovish turn also risks making a frothy US market frothier, raising financial stability risk

My latest in the @financialtimes.com (free-to-read) 👉 on.ft.com/4gEiMZF

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