Author | Lightnews

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 1d

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 1d

🦃 There's been a long-term decline in the number of turkeys being slaughtered in the UK:

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 1d

Curious to know as well, as someone with meniscus issues.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

Full report is available here ⤵️

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

But further tax rises risk keeping inflation stubbornly high, with food inflation potentially staying above 5% into 2026. The direction now depends on policy choices: a supportive Budget could bring relief, while extra business costs may prolong the squeeze.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

💼 With the Autumn Budget swiftly approaching, the Chancellor has a chance to ensure cost pressures begin to ease. If no new business taxes are introduced, shop price inflation could plateau and gradually ease as global costs settle.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

UK producer price inflation rose to 3.4% (factory gate), with input costs up 0.8%. Domestic food and metals drove cost pressures, but crude oil inputs fell sharply. Services inflation remains sticky, keeping upward pressure on shop prices.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

🌐 The FAO Food Price Index slipped in September, to 3.4% above last year but nearly 20% below its 2022 peak. Sugar, cereals, dairy, and oils all fell, while meat hit a new high. Global food price volatility remains key to observe.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

Further up the supply-chain, commodity markets were mixed: metals and some foods rose, but oil prices fell to $64.33/barrel (down on the month). Gas prices edged up initially on winter demand. Softer energy costs and better crop supply hint at easing input costs into 2026. ⛽🌾

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

🏷️ Non-food deflation deepened to -0.4% (from -0.1%). Electricals, clothing, and home entertainment saw further price drops, while DIY, health & beauty, and furniture posted modest gains. Retailers leaned on early promotions ahead of Black Friday.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

🍏 Food inflation fell to 3.7%, the first drop since January. Fresh food inflation rose to 4.3%, but ambient food slowed sharply to 2.9%. Wholesale dairy prices tumbled again; cheddar, butter, cream, and milk powder are all seeing double-digit deflation. 🥛🥦

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

Headline shop price inflation eased to 1.0% year-on-year, down from 1.4% in September. Month-on-month, prices fell by 0.3%. 📊

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 2d

🛍️📉 Shop Price Inflation Slows in October

Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 6d

If you break it down by detailed category-level, this is sales performance (values) ranked. Electricals up there, and independents as well as clothing are performing decently.

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 6d

Non-store retail growth is something to behold, having grown 8.6% compared to the previous year. Other stores has also had a sharp monthly increase, which it's possible to attribute to the release of the iPhone 17 as well as the usual back2school electrical refresh.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 6d

But the sharp divergence between food and non-food sales persists. We are still buying less food than we were in 2019. Most of this growth is being led by non-food, and particularly non-store retailers. where we're buying a lot of gold.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 6d

Good retail sales performance in the three months to September. Sales volumes rose 0.5% m-o-m which makes it four consecutive periods of monthly growth. Sales are now at their highest since July 2022.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

For headline inflation I think that might be fair, especially with energy pushing down on it. We'll have a 2% increase in energy bills vs 10% this time last year. Unless there's more policy-induced inflation but I think that forces stickier rather than higher inflation (early 3s vs mid-2s).

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

It's challenging to make sense of the differences... our own measure held steady over September. We're on the lower-end (4.2%), but historically that's not abnormal. Do we see a sharp jump following EPR? If so, that takes us back above 5% over Q4.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

It's now looking quite likely that UK inflation being higher compared to G7 nations was a bit of a policy-induced blip. CPI may even return to target by the middle of 2026.

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

Surprise drop in food prices means that the CPI remains unchanged at 3.8%. This is the first monthly decrease in food prices since May 2024.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

Furniture etc was quite subdued but in isolation furniture re-entered deflation. In fact, not a bad time to get garden furniture as prices are in deep deflation. Not quite the best weather of course.

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

In keeping with seasonal trends, clothing inflation picked up in September but this appears to be more so down to the increasing cost of dry-cleaning (services element) whereas children's clothing did benefit form back2school price cuts.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

Food prices fell across 30 products, although rose across 25 (beef prices keep soaring higher). These are some of the big movers in terms of price reductions. Olive oil continues to tumble.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

Surprise drop in food prices means that the CPI remains unchanged at 3.8%. This is the first monthly decrease in food prices since May 2024.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 10d

Why are TVs getting cheaper? Mentioned here in the @thetimes.com

Prices are rising in the UK. So why do TVs keep getting cheaper?

Some types of consumer electronics are bucking the rising inflation trend — and their cost could soon drop further

www.thetimes.com