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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 5h

That's very interesting. Why was there an exception for Venezuelans?

Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 12h

… and Ukrainians, who are given decent accommodation and psychological support, able to work from day one, don't inspire violent “protests“, and according to a report boosted the economy by €3.5bn last year.
I wonder if there are any lessons to be learned here.
www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/v...

Voor het eerst berekend: Oekraïense arbeiders geven onze economie miljardenboost, en de impact kan nóg groter worden

Dat veel gevluchte Oekraïners hier een baan hebben, is langer bekend. Nu is het voor eerst berekend hoeveel dat de Nederlandse economie eigenlijk oplevert: miljarden euro’s per jaar. En de impact kan nóg groter worden, aldus onderzoekers.

www.telegraaf.nl

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 12h

Fascinating thing about the Dutch obsession with asylum is that the Netherlands is running a unique experiment with two groups: non-European refugees, who are cooped up in abysmal conditions, excluded from everything and blamed for social disruption, petty crime and inciting far-right hooliganism …

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 12h

If you want a metaphor for the current state of Dutch politics, how about this story about a man who deliberately set his alarms to go off at 5am every morning to annoy his neighbours, and only stopped when the police broke into his house and destroyed them? www.ad.nl/binnenland/m...

Marco’s wekkers houden flat al maanden wakker: ‘Ik zet ze expres aan als ik niet thuis ben’

Bewoners van een flatgebouw in Spijkenisse worden al maanden elke morgen om 05.00 uur wakker van de wekkers van een buurman die anderhalf uur lang afgaan. Hij zet ze aan als hij naar zijn werk gaat. „...

www.ad.nl

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 12h

He's certainly not the Messiah, but Geert Wilders has miraculously risen again after three days of fearing for his safety from a jihadist cell in Belgium to return to the election campaign trail.
The PVV dropped 2% in the polls in his absence.
www.dutchnews.nl/2025/10/elec...

Election watch: Wilders returns, JA21 fiddles the figures - DutchNews.nl

With two weeks to go before the general election, here is a round-up of the latest election news. JA21 changes its plans Current affairs show Nieuwsuur has found out that the plans in JA21’s election ...

www.dutchnews.nl

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 12h

Short answer - he might be asked to try to put a coalition together, but any cabinet has to be approved by a majority in parliament and I can't see him getting past that obstacle.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

Finally: the only way Wilders could form a cabinet is a hard-right combination with JA21, FVD and BBB, who add up to 53 seats. Even with VVD on board, they're nine short.
A lot of people will be asking in the next 2 weeks if Geert Wilders can become prime minister. The very simple answer is "no".

Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

If you take out GL-PvdA and bring in JA21 you get a coalition that's more palatable to the VVD, but those two parties plus CDA and D66 only have 64 seats. They'd need at least 2 minor parties to get up to a majority.
GL-PvdA would prefer the SP, but with CDA and D66 they'd only have 66.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

Possible coalitions? The RTL coalition (GL-PvdA, CDA, VVD, D66) have a combined 76 seats in this poll (same as De Hond at the weekend), so the slenderest of majorities.
But a nightmare for the VVD, because 58% of their voters would rather go into opposition than a coalition with GL-PvdA.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

JA21 keep climbing – seem to be picking up from PVV, which is bad news for the VVD. But Yesilgöz will be relieved her party hasn't dropped any further.
D66 level with VVD – which order these parties finish in could have a bearing on the coalition talks. eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/opiniepanel/...

PVV verliest licht in nieuwe zetelpeiling; D66, JA21 en VVD nu op gelijke hoogte

De PVV verliest licht 2 weken voor de verkiezingen. De partij van Wilders staat op 31 zetels, dat waren er eind september nog 34. D66 en JA21 krijgen er iets...

eenvandaag.avrotros.nl

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

GL-PvdA and D66 both gain. So where are those votes coming from? Most likely fringe left-wing parties: SP are down from 7 to 4, PvdD (animal rights party) also down 1.
More evidence that CDA are stalling, now down to third behind GL-PvdA. eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/opiniepanel/...

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

New Dutch election poll! With some small but interesting shifts:
PVV down 3 seats. Wilders’ decision to stay off the campaign trail isn't winning him sympathy votes – most PVV voters are understanding, but 60% want him to get back on TV, especially first-time voters from 2023.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

According to the FT, the Dutch government's unprecedented boardroom intervention at Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia was a response to economic pressure from the US to separate its European and Chinese operations. www.ft.com/content/db01...

Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief

Takeover of Nexperia plunges Netherlands into US-China tech war

www.ft.com

Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

Dat doet inderdaad een belletje rinkelen

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

Verrast dat hier niet over staat in De Krant van Wakker Nederland. nos.nl/artikel/2586...

Politie grijpt in bij wekker die maandenlang afgaat in Spijkenisse

De afgelopen twee weken is door de politie geprobeerd om de bewoner te bereiken, maar die was niet thuis.

nos.nl

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 1d

Dutch police are not investigating any new threats against PVV party leader Geert Wilders, who suspended his election campaign because of a “bad feeling” after three members of a jihadist cell were arrested in Antwerp for plotting to attack politicians. www.telegraaf.nl/misdaad/poli...

Politie en OM: ’Geen indicaties voor extra dreiging richting Wilders’

De nationale politie en het Openbaar Ministerie zien geen indicaties voor extra dreiging tegen PVV-voorman Geert Wilders. Er lopen geen politieonderzoeken in Nederland, bevestigen de woordvoerders van Politie en OM aan De Telegraaf.

www.telegraaf.nl

Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 3d

It does look like the likeliest option, but it's not the only one. My guess is the top two parties (excluding PVV) will quickly form a "motor block" and decide who else joins them. It's also possible they'll need a fifth party …

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Reposted by Gordon Darroch

Ben Coates @bencoates1.bsky.social · 3d

Anti immigration protest in Amsterdam

A truly devastating zoom out by the camera here.
We are the Netherlands! - all fifty of us!

Sebastiaan Barel @sebastiaanbarel.bsky.social · 3d

“Wij zijn Nederland, wij zijn Nederland!” #Museumplein #Amsterdam

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 3d

But never write off Wilders and his keen political instincts. It's unlikely, but not impossible, that he'll finish much above his current level of c. 30 seats, but if the gap starts to narrow, the voters flirting with JA21 could snap back behind the PVV.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 3d

Right-wing voters usually mobilise to stop GL-PvdA finishing first – in this case second because of Wilders’ pariah status. If GL-PvdA keep declining, it will make D66 a less risky option for VVD supporters who dislike the party’s lurch to the right under Yesilgöz.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 3d

My impression is most of the movement is between VVD, PVV and JA21 on the right, while D66 will hope to pick up from CDA, GL-PvdA and VVD. They could also eat into the support for Volt and PvdD if things go really well.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 3d

JA21 are also flatlining after a rapid rise in 3 months. And Wilders is holding out at the top – will be interesting to see if his decision to pause his campaign helps or hurts him. And if he comes back in the final week, when the big shifts often happen, to defend his advantage.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 3d

There's also downward momentum by GL-PvdA while D66 are on the up. Not impossible they could swap places, but it'll be tough for Jetten to catch the CDA.
Too early to talk of a VVD recovery, but perhaps the election won't be quite as disastrous as some of their members fear.

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 3d

Dutch election campaigns are short and intense, and momentum is crucial. Peak too early and you can be heading for a crushing disappointment. Latest polls show the CDA, after a good 18 months, struggling to hit the 25 line. Are voters getting cold feet about Henri Bontenbal?

Poll by Maurice de Hond on October 10, 2025, 19 days before the Dutch general election.
PVV: 31 seats (up 1 since last week)
GroenLinks PvdA: 25 seats (down 2)
CDA: 22 seats (down 1)
VVD: 15 seats (up 2)
D66: 14 seats (up 2)
JA21: 13 seats (no change)
Forum voor Democratie: 5 seats (no change)
Socialist Party: 4 seats (down 2)
Farmer-Citizen Movement: 4 seats (no change)
Denk: 4 seats (no change)
Animal Rights Party: 3 seats (no change)
Reformed Protestant Party: 3 seats (no change)
Volt: 3 seats (no change)
Christian Union: 3 seats (no change)
50 Plus: 1 seat (no change)

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Gordon Darroch @gordondarroch.bsky.social · 4d

Two PVV MPs have been using AI to create racist fake news photos and videos and post them online during the current election campaign, NRC reports. www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...

‘PVV voert campagne met nepfoto’s’

Vanuit de Tweede Kamerfractie van de PVV worden in het geheim met AI racistische ideeën gepromoot op sociale media. Ten minste twee Kamerleden houden zich hiermee bezig, blijkt uit een onderzoek van D...

www.nrc.nl