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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.

Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.

In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.

Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.

Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.

In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.

Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

Good read
Love the quote about a “potential” bubble in gold 😀😀

Ian Smith @iankmsmith.ft.com · 1d

“I thought it was important to have something that physically exists, something you can actually hold in your hands"

We dig into one of the markets stories of the year: gold mania
www.ft.com/content/3401...

Story by me, Leslie Hook, Harry Dempsey, data visualisation by @raydouglas.bsky.social

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 1d

Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 2d

I do explain why this is the case, in The Time Travelling Economist (high fertility = low savings = high interest rates = overly expensive electricity)

Cheap solar panels and cheap batteries do help

Charles Onyango-Obbo @cobbo3.bsky.social · 2d

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 2d

China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size

But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 2d

Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity

A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 4d

Peso is undervalued 😂

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 4d

Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 5d

You may well be right of course!

Difference between the two … I couldn’t finish Miran’s article, unclear, poorly written or just didn’t make sense to me

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 5d

And partly so that Bessent can be criticised with his own words, if his short listed Fed Governor ends up doing QE

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 5d

Ok, ok, maybe I’m reading too much in that bit.

But it was a good read

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 5d

The important take-away for markets is that Bessent would clearly not favour a return to QE policies to get the long end of the bond curve down, if an overly dovish Fed created inflation

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 5d

I quibble with just one line. He provides good evidence on the first argument ..but in this piece offers no evidence that tax cuts and deregulation would have been more successful

Curiously he makes a better argument in justifying Trump calling for interest rate cuts

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 5d

Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent

www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...

He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE

Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 7d

Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani

Serene Doomer @serenaribena.bsky.social · 9d

'Burundi endures ‘worst economic crisis in a country not at war’...

“We ate some fish in 2019. That was a good day,” said 40yo Aleko in Buterere... in the landlocked African nation of Burundi. “Now, every once in a while, we eat peanuts. This is worse than before,”'

www.ft.com/content/4aca...

Burundi endures ‘worst economic crisis in a country not at war’

Central African nation struggles to emerge from poverty and conflict as president promises reform

www.ft.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 12d

This is great piece, very clear and well structured

When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt

Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 12d

Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com Times for asking me to share my thoughts on why I believe the AI capex boom signals the start of the end-game for this phase of the AI bubble.

www.ft.com/content/c7b9...

The AI capex endgame is approaching

The rapid building of excess capacity both extends bubbles and ultimately bursts them

www.ft.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 13d

🙏 I’m sure P&G would have cited other issues.

And to be fair, in a country Pakistan’s size there will be areas with millions of people with the skills to do manufacturing.

My point is that disappointment and problems are more likely than easy successes that last decades (Vietnam, Korea, etc)

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 13d

Pakistan is not ready to industrialise, due to low female literacy.

P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this.

See “The Time Travelling Economist”

Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan

The Standard @thestandard.com.pk · 13d

P&G announces it is shutting down operations in Pakistan, with Gillette Pakistan Limited notifying PSX of intent to delist in light of parent company’s decision

P&G to Shut Down Operations in Pakistan

Gillette Pakistan Limited has notified PSX of intent to delist in light of parent company’s decision

thestandard.com.pk

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 14d

AGOA expired last night, but most assume it will be renewed, and attached to some other legislation Congress passes

Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks

Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam

unctad.org/news/tariffs...

Tariffs, trade and preferences: What if AGOA ends?

Market access to the United States could further deteriorate for many African countries if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is not renewed before its expiration on 30 September 2025.

unctad.org

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 14d

Bernanke, 2008

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 15d

US government looming shutdown

All important upcoming Argentina elections

Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation

Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 15d

Sounds like most of them haven't been to Saudi Arabia, and that includes the ones refusing to go

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 15d

Some basically good inflation data out of Uganda, rising from 3.8% to 4.0% driven by tomatoes and pineapples from what I can see.

Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about

www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...

www.ubos.org

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 15d

Lesotho called this first .. which is curious given they were hit hardest in Africa in the original April tariffs (since much reduced) www.reuters.com/world/africa...

US plans to extend Africa trade deal by a year, says Lesotho minister

Lesotho's trade minister said on Wednesday that the U.S. plans to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which gives the continent preferential access to U.S. markets, by a year, after returning from a visit to Washington.

www.reuters.com

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