Two (!) swinging strikes and 96mph exit velo allowed on balls in play. When you’re not fooling anyone and allowing lots of hard contact, you’re balancing on a razors edge.

I run auction values based upon the Streamer/600 Updated projections. Which, for pitching, assumes every SP will throw 200IP. Sale is literally the 4th most valuable pitcher using this approach, behind Skubal, Skenes, Crochet. So you’re not off base.

Can we compare these stuff+ numbers to other MLB pitchers? They’re on the same scale?

Thanks - looks like Burns is in rarified air. Only a few starting pitchers in the range of his Stuff. Hunter Greene, Cease, Pepiot.

Using your AAA pitching app (nice work!), it looks like Burns has the highest tjStuff+ in the league for a starter, and all his pitches are above average. And very similar to Bubba Chandler. Do you publish your Major league stuff? I’m curious how this compares to other pitchers.

Yes. I’m shocked how often this is blithely ignored. As if the dignity & sovereignty of a democratic nation can be reduced to a financial transaction.

Ostensibly the things Burns needs to work on - although it’s hard to see in the results - is how he mixes offspeed pitches into his arsenal. Keith Law mentioned this. If you watched the game, did you get a sense that Burns was working on his changeup?

Chase Burns 🤔

People forget how freakishly talented Andruw Jones was.

Love the focus on young men; I’m a father of a 7 year old boy, and worry about the world we are building for him. That said, I’ve known you to be someone who values facts over feelings; but recently you’ve veered into exposition & narrative over facts & data - and this is an example of just that.

Expanding on this: I don’t know how accurate the pitch tracking is at the AA level, so take this with a grain of salt, but here are the pitch plots on those 3 walks. I found a similar phenomenon when he was at High-A. His control isn’t talked about as much, but has been impeccable.

In your model, are MiLB pitches calibrated against similar levels? Or are they scaled against MLB pitches? I know Eno said that his stuff model is calibrated within each level…which doesn’t seem to enable cross-level comparisons. e.g. A 110 stuff+ at AAA is not the same as a 110 at MLB.

You have Coby Mayo at 1B I assume?

And look at his two “walks.” I don’t know how precise the pitch tracking is in A+, but these charts look pretty egregious. His line looks even more dominant considering this.

@nickpollack.pitcherlist.com excellent work. I see a lot of differences in this new list vs the Top 200 published a few months ago. Ryne Nelson stands out - ranked 127 now vs. 62 before. I’m not asking about Nelson specifically, but I AM wondering if you would recommend ignoring the previous list.