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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 21h

It is all vibes, man.

David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 21h

Applying some of what I learned from @chadtopaz.bsky.social .

Gun dealers isn't the only thing that is low dimensional. Concealed carry permits are well. Which is a little remarkable considering the heterogeneity in state laws and renewal cycles.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 2d

Guys. 7 with 4 preps across 3 different addresses is a bit much.

David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 2d

m.youtube.com/watch?v=fUww...

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 2d

real footage of me working with brightspace

a black and white drawing of a person holding a fork in front of a computer .

ALT: a black and white drawing of a person holding a fork in front of a computer .

media.tenor.com

David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 3d

I honestly can't get over how terrible Brightspace is. I miss blackboard so much.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 8d

Halfway serious question: Can we call leaders "Authoritarian Christian Nationalists" without getting into trouble? Or does it need to be "Christian Nationalist with Authoritarian leanings"?

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 9d

btw, when the outcome variable is logged gun sales, a panel regression (county fixed effect) with only year fixed effects has an r^2 of over .9. the within unit r^2 is also near .6.

David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 9d

You can do the same exercise with actual gun sales! year fixed effects are even more similar across the two outcome variables (gun sales and estimated gun sales).

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 13d

Oh! The R^2 for a model estimating logged cc permits at the county level using ONLY year and county fixed effects is.....

R-squared = 0.9356
Adj R-squared = 0.9313
Within R-sq. = 0.6761

David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 13d

ta-da!

Almost parallel!

Which makes perfect sense because not every permit is going to come with a new gun

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 13d

Not great but not bad either. Blows up a little later in the panel ☹

But here is a thought: a lot of these CC permits are going to be renewals. So what if I also control for the number of permits issued 5 years in the past (common permit length)?

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 13d

Then do the same with our logged gun sales estimates.

If we are right, then both models should produce similar year fixed effects.

Here is what happens when I try it:

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 13d

@troach.bsky.social and I's shitck is changes in gun sales are national vibes, & refs at some of the leading economic journals don't seem to buy it.

There is a natural test though: estimate logged county-level CC permits using fixed effects panel and only year fixed effects.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 15d

~36% of the guns recovered in DC from November 2021 to August 2025 were Glocks.

David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 16d

I think it is that but also law enforcement. I have a paper that looks at it in detail, FWIIW. Heavily influenced by the Kansas City Gun Experiment.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 16d

Watching Time Cop on Netflix. Whew. Movie goes hard.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 16d

August and September are generally pretty average in terms of accidents (February is the low).

Hasn’t been this low since COVID.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 16d

Also a big drop in traffic accidents.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 22d

Just submitted the proofs for my job market paper from 2015.

Whew, what a journey.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 28d

I ”jokingly“ suggested to my wife we put this guy out.

After she found out about Kimmel, she became very open to it.

David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 28d

Gave up resisting it and updated the academic website.

sites.google.com/view/davidbl...

David Blake Johnson

My name is David Blake Johnson. I am an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Central Missouri, where my research lies at the intersection of applied microeconomics and behavioral econ...

sites.google.com

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · 29d

Use the wayback machine to see how much of the tariff you had to eat! should be easy to find historical prices.

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David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · Sep 16

Sadly, I think you are right. Everyone can grasp it, so it ends up sucking all the air out of the room. Lowest common denominator.

David Johnson @davidblakejohnson.bsky.social · Sep 13

This isn’t a new thing. I have paper that used stormfront as a group. Part of the experiment asked students how much the agreed with stormfront’s motto/description. I was taken aback by how much agreement/support there was among undergraduates.