Author | Lightnews

Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 17h

Also of note in VA-GOV is that Spanberger is winning the Richmond region (Richmond + Cville media markets in our regional clusters) by only 1pt less than she is in NoVA. She's knocking it out of the park in her homebase.

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 17h

Our Virginia Navigate forecast updates at 8 AM Eastern. The biggest update will be in the AG race where Jay Jones has his slimmest-ever lead of just 4.6% in our forecast: AG is coming down to the wire. He has an 81% chance of winning at the moment.

projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

2025 VA Forecasts

Take a look at State Navigate's 2025 Virginia forecasts.

projects.statenavigate.com

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 17h

🔶Spanberger winning 68-29 among Moderates
🔶"Shy" Jay Jones voters exist: notice people who say they've already voted
🔶7% of Spanberger voters are voting for Miyares

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 17h

Highlights:

🔶Among people who've already voted: Spanberger 64-35 Spanberger
🔶Among people who have yet to vote but plan to do so: 54-45 Spanberger
🔶Among independent voters: Spanberger 72-17
🔶Spanberger making large gains with lower income voters

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 17h

🚨NEW POLL from @statenavigate.org

VA-GOV | 🔵Spanberger +13
VA-LG | 🔵Hashmi +11
VA-AG |🔵Jones +5
VA-HoD Generic |🔵

Mary Radcliffe and I with the breakdown and takeaways

statenavigate.org/state-naviga...

State Navigate Poll Shows Spanberger with 13-Point Lead in Virginia Governor Race - State Navigate

Spanberger reaches new heights in the Virginia Governor race, but a competitive race for Attorney General may result in a split statewide ticket result.

statenavigate.org

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 1d

VA statewide poll out tomorrow AM. Enjoy

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 1d

VPAP is wrong. It's Harris +1.6.

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 1d

Data should be a right, not a privilege. We want to conduct nonpartisan public polling for state government elections. Help us make it happen by making a tax-deductible donation to our polling fund today as we look to poll 2 more HoD seats!

statenavigate.org/state-naviga...

State Navigate’s Polling Fund - State Navigate

State Navigate's Polling Fund Public polling for state-level elections is scarce and often of low quality and high cost. State Navigate has built a team trained in political and data science to addres...

statenavigate.org

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 1d

NEW @statenavigate.org poll in VA HD-86

GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5
LG | 🔵Hashmi +1
AG | 🔵Jones +1
HoD | 🔵Thornton +6

statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho...

New Poll Shows Democrats Favored to Flip Virginia House Seat in Hampton Roads - State Navigate

A new poll conducted by State Navigate shows Virgil Thornton in a strong position to flip HD-86 in Hampton Roads.

statenavigate.org

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 1d

VA HD-86 poll releasing momentarily.

VA statewide poll coming tomorrow.

Get notified on the releases:

statenavigate.org/newsletter/

Newsletter - State Navigate

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER:

statenavigate.org

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 2d

The @StateNavigate VA HD-86 poll will release tomorrow.

Get notified the second it comes out. Subscribe to our free newsletter:

statenavigate.org/newsletter/

Newsletter - State Navigate

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER:

statenavigate.org

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 3d

2020 exit poll is probably not great TBH, 2020 was the worst year for polling since the 80s. Can see there being issues getting DEMs to come talk to you due to social distancing or whatever.

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 3d

I said this on X today, but to get a presidential recall result to match 2024 in VA, you have to get a party ID that is about D+2 now. Party ID's moved leftward over the last year (duh, thermostatic public opinion).

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 3d

Party ID in every VA presidential & gubernatorial election since 2012

2012: D+7 ➡️ 2013 D+5
2016: D+7 ➡️ 2017 D+11
2020: D+2 ➡️ 2021 D+2
2024 D+4 ➡️ 2025 ???

It will be D+ something in 2025, IMO. I would wager between 5 and 9.

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 3d

Gonna try to post a bit more on here, hopefully pays off.

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 3d

State Navigate Virginia statewide poll will be done in the field by 9:30 AM tomorrow. After that we're working on prepping it for release, as well as HD-86.

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 16d

statenavigate.org/democrats-tr...

Democrats Try to Win Back Hokies in Blacksburg’s House District 41 - State Navigate

College-aged voters left Democrats in droves in 2024, and the race for Virginia Tech's House District 41 will be a test of whether they can win them back.

statenavigate.org

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Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe

State Navigate @statenavigate.org · Sep 18

A political rematch is brewing in Virginia's House District 82, and according to Chaz Nuttycombe, it's set to test Spanberger's electoral liabilities.

Want to know more? Check out this story at https://loom.ly/T3K-Rn8