Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

CFBNumbers

@cfbnumbers.bsky.social

11K followers 630 following 670 posts

College Football analysis through the good ole fashioned computer! | Senior Media Research Associate: PFF The CFB Analytics Newsletter: https://cfbnumbers.substack.com Buy Me A Coffee!: https://buymeacoffee.com/cfbnumbers

cfbnumbers.substack.com

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 1h

Updated top 30 QBs in the FBS (Career number not just this year) based on my point rating system. Jayden Maiava and Demond Williams have climbed the most this season. Ty Simpson sitting just outside the top 30 (32). Drew Allar has fallen out of the top 30

1 3

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 5h

Looking at offensive conversion rate paired with the average down they achieve these 1st down conversions (excluding plays in the red zone). I am of the philosophy that the best offenses convert at a high rate and on earlier downs. Its too hard to live and die by 3rd down

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 6d

Have seen some NFL posts about QB sacks + scrambles, wanted to look at it on the college level (although its all rushes and not just scrambles sadly). QBs to the right of the line have added more as a rusher than they have lost taking sacks

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 7d

Love looking at expected points before the snap vs. average distance as you also get things like field position + time left in EP. Missouri, Indiana and Utah among the best 3rd down offenses so far this season

1 1 7

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 8d

Top 30 FBS QBs (Career rating) heading into week 7 this week. Darian Mensah and Jayden Maiava keep moving up, dont forget about CJ Bailey making his climb!

1 5

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 9d

"Passing" Down frequency & how efficient QBs have been on those passing downs. CJ Bailey, Ty Simpson, Josh Hoover have been ballin on a bigger sample of passing downs for the P4, Brown & Finley for Georgia State in the G5

1 1 10

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 14d

Now that we are a couple games in, its time to see what the Fun Index thinks of your team (Fun Index = composite of metrics i find fun like QB play, explosiveness on offense, generating turnovers on defense etc.). Top teams having fun: USC, Indiana and Florida State

3 2 12

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 14d

New article! This week I chose to highlight how impressive CJ Carr looked against Arkansas. Come check it out!
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-cj-car...

The CJ Carr Week: CFB Week 5 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 6 Look Ahead

Before you could even finish your blink, September college football is behind us.

cfbnumbers.substack.com

2 5

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 20d

Home and Away Point differential over expectation (expectation being betting lines) since the 2022 season. Really just wanted to see Oregon in the Dan Lanning era, not as bad of a diff home vs. away than I originally thought.

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21d

Fresh coat of paint and, more importantly, I have updated my QB spider chart app to include the 2025 season as it stands today. Still gotta work on QB comps from previous years but for now if you want 2025 data it is there!

cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/

1 9

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 21d

New weekly recap in your inboxes!! A QB has potentially emerged in a murky 2026 QB class:
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-fernan...

The Fernando Mendoza Week: CFB Week 4 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 5 Look Ahead

The 2026 NFL draft is still many months away, but scouting has been well underway this season.

cfbnumbers.substack.com

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 24d

Highest PFF Big Time Throw rate so far this season:
1. Tommy Castellanos (FSU) - 12.8%
2. Will Hammond (TTU) - 10.0%
3. Colton Joseph (ODU) - 9.9%
4. Brendan Sorsby (Cincy) - 9.1%

1 4

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27d

Started the year super high, has been falling ever since. Similar to power ratings you won't see many massive swings up or down on a week to week basis

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 27d

QB point rating as it stands currently vs. how many points they've gained or lost since the beginning of the year. These are 45 QBs who could be potential 2026 or 2027 NFL Draft QBs. Still super early and its hard to gain that much against inferior opponents

1 7

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 28d

Here is the entire FBS for those curious. The creep up to Carson Beck continues

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 28d

Top 30 QBs in my point rating system heading into this week. Big moves up by Marcel Reed, Jake Retzlaff, Joey Aguilar, Taylen Green among others. Drew Allar continues to fall

2 6

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 28d

Another recap + look ahead just hit your inboxes! (If you're subscribed of course, which is 100% free!)

Link⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...

The Week of the Wide Receiver: CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 4 Look Ahead

Wide receivers making big time impacts in big time games!

cfbnumbers.substack.com

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · 29d

Success rate and explosiveness (measured here as what you do when you generate a successful play). Anything right of the vertical dashed line is fine, shows a consistent offense. USC has been both consistent and explosive

1 4

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · Sep 16

*Small sample size alert* But looking at Arch Mannings completion pct vs. expected completion pct, we can see that intermediate 10-19 yard range has really taken a dive so far this year. Hard to fully operate a Sark offense if you can hit those 10-19 yard MOF windows

1 9

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · Sep 14

Here is the group of 5. Colton Joseph put on a show against the Hokies, Didn't watch the CCU game but Tad Hudson probably needed more help

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · Sep 14

QB for JUST the games that happened this weekend. Up first is the Power 4. Not a banner day for Drew Allar/Arch Manning, but a great day for Fernando Mendoza, Malik Washington, Josh Hoover & Steve Angeli

3 15

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · Sep 12

A silly little big time throw rate & turnover worthy play rate graph with only a 2 game sample size. Mainly just to say wheewwwww buddy Arch Manning and Diego Pavia. A thrill on every dropback

2 2 5

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · Sep 12

If he continues to have games like San Jose State he will make his way on here. Still a relatively small sample size for him and his career

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · Sep 11

Here is the entire FBS

2 7

CFBNumbers @cfbnumbers.bsky.social · Sep 11

Top 30 FBS QBs according to my ratings system (a career number, not just this year), as well as how their rating has changed since the beginning of the year. The Oklahoma YoY numbers are going to be insane thanks to John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle

5 3 10