Author | Lightnews

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 2h

Man, those murder mitts...

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 2h

"Oh, we didn't lose it. We know exactly where it is."

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 2h

If I were them, I simply wouldn't make $1.3 trillion in spending commitments that I can't conceivably fulfill.

Do I have to think of everything around here?

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 3h

They want most of the proles dead, and the remainder enslaved. It's that simple.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 4h

The talking point that 'CapEx is funded from hyperscalers' cashflow' died last week.

Now we get an object lesson in the sunk cost fallacy.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 4h

Bessent doing QE cowboy style, since the Fed won't make him look solvent any more.

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 4h

CRWV seems to me, on paper, la dead company walking. Insane debt levels for someone losing that much money.

You can no longer discount the idea that Trump might step in to rescue one of his sycophants.

I do think Deutsche is right, data centers/financing are the weakest link in the AI chain.

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 4h

I know PIMCO is on the hook for a ton of these, but it's spread thinly over their dozens of high-yield bond funds.

I see ORCL as the most vulnerable of the hyperscalers. I don't see any way OpenAI pays them the $300b they agreed to.

Now, it even looks like OpenAI is angling for a backstop.

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 4h

Tough one. So much of the debt is issued by private credit, snd the only private credit company I know of is OWL. AFAIK, they don't hold the debt on their books, it's sold primarily to university endowments and insurers stretching for yield and doing duration matching.

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 5h

They've put export controls on vibranium, which is critical to US military military and technology applications.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 5h

Notice the two countries in need if more Democracy - Venezuela and Nigeria - both have significant oil reserves.

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 5h

The talking point that hyperscalers are paying for CapEx out of cashflow died last week, and here they are, already angling for a government bailout/backstop.

Did they ever think of simply not committing to making over a $trillion in spending commitments in the next 3 years?

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