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george

@beatingthetide.com

11 followers 16 following 130 posts

Full-time stock investor (+53% in 2024, +30% annually since 2012). This is not legal or financial advice.

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george @beatingthetide.com · Feb 18

Outperform the S&P 500 with actionable stock ideas every month!
Let’s grow, learn, and make investing fun—just remember: this isn’t financial advice.
www.beatingthetide.com

Beating the Tide | George Atuan, CFA | Substack

Paid subscribers get real-time stock ideas, a weekly newsletter and access to the investment portfolio (up +53% in 2024 and 30% average per year since 2012). Click to read Beating the Tide, by George ...

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · 2d

Oct 7 marks one year of Beating The Tide. The portfolio is up +36% vs +16.7% for the S&P 500.

- $TSM ’s earnings and my new target price
- Argentina’s market is collapsing again... and it’s starting to look like time to get the nets ready.
#stocks
#investing
www.beatingthetide.com/p/tsmc-valua...

george @beatingthetide.com · 5d

Goldman Sachs starts $CLS coverage with Buy rating…it’s about time

george @beatingthetide.com · 5d

After a total return of 16%, I’m closing my $MFC position.
Asia’s growth story turned out more competitive than I expected. Good company, solid dividend, but limited upside.
Time to redeploy into better opportunities. Full deep dive: www.beatingthetide.com/p/manulife-m...
#Stocks
#investing

george @beatingthetide.com · 6d

$ODC popped despite a revenue/EPS miss.
The market is seeing mix + pricing discipline drive margins.
Higher-margin animal health/turf up; pet care steady. Operating leverage building; cash flow solid.
Full breakdown in my Oct 8 deep note👇
www.beatingthetide.com/i/175806120/...
#stocks
#investing

george @beatingthetide.com · 7d

$AGX just hit an all-time high after JPM upgraded it to Overweight with a $315 target 🚀

Argan’s backlog, gas projects & balance sheet make it a stealth winner of the AI power boom.

Up 145% since I added it to the portfolio — here’s the deep dive: www.beatingthetide.com/p/argan-agx-...
#stocks

Argan (AGX) Deep Dive: Why I’m Still Bullish After a 87% Run

A detailed deep dive into Argan’s growth story, updated DCF valuation, Q1 earnings, insider selling, and what I’m doing with my position.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · 8d

Neutral on $KTOS.
Love the tech but price assumes flawless execution. H1’25 rev +13%, backlog ~$1.4B; op margin ~1% vs 10–15% at $LMT/ $RTX.
Trades >200x fwd EPS, ~140x EV/EBITDA.
I’ll buy on a pullback or clear margin lift toward mid-teens.
#stocks
#investing

george @beatingthetide.com · 12d

We just crossed 1,000 subscribers!
Huge thanks to everyone who read, challenged, and built this community with me.
If you want #stock research that connects dots, an engaged crew of #investors & stock picks that outperform the $SPY, join us. First thousand down, now we compound. beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · 13d

HSBC cuts $INTC, calling its 55% re-rating “unsustainable.”
Splashy deals ($2B SoftBank, $5B $NVDA, $11.1B U.S. stake) ≠ fab execution.
Intel still trails $TSM on process, yields, trust. Rally looks like a sugar high—show chips that win on perf/cost/timing.
#stocks
#investing

george @beatingthetide.com · 16d

+27.1% YTD and 2.2x the market since inception.

This week, I explain why I stopped showing up to parties at 7:55 pm and what that taught me about stock entry timing, catalysts, and IRR.

www.beatingthetide.com/p/party-less...
#stocks
#investing

Weekly #50: What Showing Up Late to Parties Taught Me About Investing Timing

Portfolio +27.1% YTD, 2.2x the market. Skip the first +30%. Buy when evidence is real and time-boxed.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · 20d

Free Cash Flow Yield cuts through the noise
It’s cash generated ÷ valuation.
High yield often signals value, but beware traps. Always dig into debt, capex, industry norms & sustainability.
Use FCF yield as one tool, not the magic wand.
#InvestingTips
www.beatingthetide.com/p/free-cash-...

What Is a Good Free Cash Flow Yield? A Simple Guide to Smarter Stock Picks

A clear, practical breakdown of free cash flow yield: what it is, how to judge if it’s “good,” and why it matters for avoiding traps and finding undervalued stocks across industries.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · 23d

Up +26.6% YTD & 2.3x the market since inception

This week I dive into the “AI Love Triangle”: OpenAI x $NVDA x $ORCL and what this 10-GW buildout means for our key positions like $CLS, $TSM, $POWL & $AGX.
#stocks
#investing
#nvda
#tsm
#cls
#openai
#ai
www.beatingthetide.com/p/ai-love-tr...

Weekly #49: The AI Love Triangle: OpenAI x NVIDIA x Oracle and the 10-GW Buildout

Portfolio +26.6% YTD, 2.3x the market, plus OpenAI–NVIDIA–Oracle reset AI data-center demand.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · 27d

After upping my $CLS target just 7 weeks ago, it’s already been hit.

In my latest piece I refresh the valuation to $320 and dig into how 800G, 1.6T and the Nvidia–OpenAI–Oracle triangle could fuel CLS’s next leg.
www.beatingthetide.com/p/celestica-...
#stocks #investing #ai

The Need for Speed: From Home Wi-Fi to Celestica’s 800G Advantage

How Celestica (CLS) is riding the shift from 400G to 800G and soon 1.6T, why Nvidia–OpenAI–Oracle’s billion-dollar triangle matters for its growth, and what my new $320 target means for investors.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Sep 21

Up 28.9% YTD and 2.4x the market since inception

I share good & bad news on $CLS and dive into how the “5 Whys” helps me pressure-test stock picks & stay curious when markets get noisy.
www.beatingthetide.com/p/5-whys-inv...
#Stock
#investing

Weekly #48: Never Stop Asking Why, The 5 Whys for Better Investing plus good and bad news on Celestica (CLS)

Portfolio +28.9% YTD, 2.4x the market, plus how a simple “5 Whys” routine improves stock selection, sell discipline, and conviction from the shop floor to the portfolio.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Sep 17

Up 57% in 5 months in $ODC.

Bought at $43, sold at $68 after a record quarter.

Valuation rerated from <8x to 13x earnings.

My updated fair value is $74 but the margin of safety is gone.
#Stock
#investing
www.beatingthetide.com/p/oil-dri-od...

Oil-Dri (ODC) Update: The Quiet Compounder Hits Its Stride

Up 57% in 5 Months, Hitting My Target Price and Posting Record Quarterly Results. Why I’m Still Closing the Position

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Sep 15

+25.6% YTD & 2.4x the market since launch

This week’s Thought of the Week: while everyone’s chasing victory, the best investors focus on avoiding loss first, the mindset behind real compounding.
www.beatingthetide.com/p/while-the-...
#StocksToBuy
#investing

Weekly #47: The Hidden Power of Playing Defense in Investing

Portfolio +25.6% YTD, 2.4x the market, plus why the “avoid losing” mindset drives compounding.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Sep 7

Portfolio update: +22.6% YTD, 2.5x the market since inception
👉 www.beatingthetide.com/p/80-20-rule...
This week I cover $AGX earnings + $CLS. Also, why the 80/20 rule explains how a few stocks drive most returns.
Solid week, enjoy the read & happy Sunday!
#stocks

Weekly #46: The 80/20 Rule in Investing — When a Few Stocks Drive the Many

Portfolio is up +22.6% YTD. This week one stock (CLS) delivered over half the gains in a 36-position portfolio. Here’s how the Pareto principle shapes returns, risk, and portfolio strategy.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Sep 5

Nice day for $CLS ! +342% since inclusion in the portfolio.

$AVGO is helping OpenAI to cook up a custom chip to compete with $NVDA. Since Celestica already uses Broadcom tech for its servers and switches, they might be able to cash in.
#stocks
#investing

george @beatingthetide.com · Sep 4

ROE flatters. ROIC informs.
In my latest deep dive, I show why ROIC is the metric that actually drives stock returns, how to break it down into real business drivers, and why it helped me beat the S&P 8x.
www.beatingthetide.com/p/roic-vs-ro...
#stocks #investing

ROIC Explained: The Most Overlooked Metric That Drives Stock Returns

A practical guide to Return on Invested Capital: from GE’s mistakes to oil company case studies, and why ROIC vs WACC is the key to long-term outperformance.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Sep 3

Antitrust ruling = relief rally.
$GOOG +8%, $AAPL +3%.
Judge says Google must open search (no exclusivity, share data) but no Chrome breakup.
Apple keeps its $20B Google deal.
In antitrust land, not losing is the same as winning.
#stocks #investing #Antitrust

george @beatingthetide.com · Aug 31

Portfolio +17.8% YTD.
While the $SPY slipped, we moved higher—widening the gap. This week’s note is on opportunity cost: every “yes” means a “no.” In life it’s gym vs muffin. In investing, it’s picking the best risk/reward stocks. Trade-offs drive results.
www.beatingthetide.com/p/opportunit...

Weekly #45: Opportunity Cost — Always Compare With Your Best Alternative

Portfolio is up +17.8% YTD. A personal tale of riot-driven change, a new watchlist of high R:R stock picks, and a Thought of the Week on why every decision comes down to opportunity cost.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Aug 29

$BABA ’s new AI chip isn’t just about dodging $NVDA bans—it’s about $TSM.

Built by a Chinese foundry (not TSM), it shows how China is rerouting supply chains.

Inference today, training tomorrow. The “foundry to the world” crown erodes at the edges.

george @beatingthetide.com · Aug 27

$MLI: Great biz, but margins won’t stay at 28%.
FIFO + copper boom made profits look fatter than they are. I see ~23–24% normalized, fair value ~$109 (16% upside).
On my watchlist, not my buy list.
Full deep dive 👉 www.beatingthetide.com/p/mueller-in...
#stocks #investing

Mueller Industries (MLI): Why 28% Margins Won’t Last Forever

Mueller Industries rode copper prices to record profits. Here’s an in-depth stock analysis on why this great business isn’t a buy at today’s price.

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Aug 26

$OPFI just boosted buybacks by $20M (now $40M total) with $32M still left.

This is exactly what I flagged in my thesis: OPFI is misunderstood, cash-generative & shareholder-friendly.
👉 www.beatingthetide.com/p/opfi-stock...

OPFI Deep Dive: The Fintech Lender That’s Beating the Odds

How OppFi’s AI, bank partnerships, and high-margin model are transforming subprime lending and why its 3.2x FCF multiple won’t last long

www.beatingthetide.com

george @beatingthetide.com · Aug 22

$UNFI is still a HOLD for me.
Q3 was solid—sales $8.06B, EBITDA +21%, $119M FCF, leverage down to 3.3x.
Network cleanup & automation help, but thin margins & customer concentration cap upside. Progress is real, but I’m staying HOLD until margins improve.

george @beatingthetide.com · Aug 21

$WMT follow-up: Sales strong (+4.8% to $177.4B; e-comm +25%) and raised FY outlook, but EPS missed ($0.68) as tariffs + self-insured costs bit. Upper-income comps led, but pricing power vs elasticity is the test. At a rich multiple “good” isn’t enough. I stay cautious.
#stocks

george @beatingthetide.com · Aug 12

Asked if I’m still bullish on $WMT? Nope.
At ~45x earnings there’s no margin for error. Tariffs are a real-time elasticity test; push prices and risk unit slowdown + markdowns. Premium multiple needs flawless ads/membership/automation. Good isn’t enough now—I’m on the sidelines.